Can Blockchain really offer a way out of the Brexit quagmire?

For those following the continuing Brexit crisis in the UK, there have been many issues not least of which is solving the "Irish border" issue. If you need more context on this issue, see the following video by Vox Atlas which does an amazing job of summarizing the issues in about 7 minutes:


What does this have to Blockchain?

Well, it seems that blockchain was identified as a possible solution for this situation. I came across this idea from an article in CCN, which stated the following:

"According to Phillip Hammond, UK’s finance minister, the best way to ensure trade across the Irish border remains frictionless after Britain leaves the EU lies in the use of blockchain technology.

“There is technology becoming available (…) I don’t claim to be an expert on it but the most obvious technology is blockchain,” Reuters reported Hammond as having answered after being asked what the government was proposing to do to ensure smooth trade after Brexit."

I followed the Reuters link but it didn't add much context to the quote; how can blockchain offer any relief from the issues related to the customs union and hard border?

But then I found an article on FT, which stated the following:

"It is safe to say technology used at the border is a red herring, as even the best database can't poke its nose inside a lorry. Here, for instance, is one of the IT experts quoted in the Irish Times calling the idea of technological solutions to the border question “complete nonsense”...

Wired also looked at tech solutions for dealing with 6,000 heavy goods vehicles per day crossing the border, and decided that they were “untested or imaginary”. Blockchain as a border solution is both.

So what inspired Hammond to jump on the blockwagon? It might have been a “white paper” literally called “Blockchain for Brexit”, released last week by Reply Ltd, a consultancy which promised a “solution that could save global businesses billions of pounds through seamless border checks and virtually infallible tracking systems for their goods”."

Although I have commented that blockchainthusiasts need to be careful about overstating the capabilities of the blockchain (such as replacing the need for financial audits), we can hardly blame blockchainthusiasm here. Rather it's the Wizard-of-Oz trick of hiding behind the magic curtain. But this time it's not a magic trick but rather the complexity of technology that some are attempting use to gloss some key issues that have emerged in the aftermath of Brexit.

Technology at the end of the day is just a tool fashioned by human beings and is not God. It can't magically solve complex business problems let alone extremely complex political issues that have been simmering for centuries.

Author: Malik Datardina, CPA, CA, CISA. Malik works at Auvenir as a GRC Strategist that is working to transform the engagement experience for accounting firms and their clients. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent UWCISA, UW, Auvenir (or its affiliates), CPA Canada or anyone else

Algorithms stayed the chaos during Brexit storm: Can they help with auditor judgment?

The recent Brexit crisis hit the markets hard with the various stock indices plummeting and investors fleeing for the safe haven of gold, which went up "by $59.30, or 4.7 percent".

Amid this  chaos, some investment strategies fared well - thanks to the use of robots.

According to the WSJ article, "Who Made Money in the Brexit Chaos? Machines, Not Humans",  machines were immune to the fear, uncertainty and doubt that plagued markets (italics, highlight mine):

"This fund category, sometimes called commodity trading advisors, or CTAs, uses customized trading algorithms to spot market trends and place bets on futures and other derivatives. Most of the models didn’t factor in British election polls, bookmakers’ odds or the political-tea leaf reading that swayed other investors looking for an edge. In the weeks leading up to the Brexit vote, the trading models at many of these firms adopted a defensive pose. They favored high-quality government bonds, gold and safer currencies like the yen, while mostly avoiding riskier bets like oil and emerging markets.

That positioning paid off after Brexit caused the pound and more volatile assets to plunge as Thursday’s results came in. Société Générale’s CTA Index gained 1.5% on Friday. AQR Capital Management LLC, Fort and Welton Investments Partners LLC were among the big gainers... A key to CTAs’ success, their managers say, is that their models can tune out noise around market moving events—like an election or crucial economic data—that are important to investors but can be difficult to accurately forecast."

The article also quoted Lara Magnusen, portfolio strategist for Altegris’s main fund, who said (bold mine):

"Our models aren’t going to be affected by the same sentiments a human would be"

I thought that this was interesting as it illustrates how the machines can be seen as a way to provide an anchor when people are getting caught up in an emotional frenzy. Think of the implications for the world of audit and assurance, where professional judgement are made to determine what accounts, transactions, etc. are risky and should be tested. Imagine an audit algorithm that can be as an independent monitor that vets judgments of the audit professional - in a "race with a machine" scenario (for more on this idea see the Ted Talk below with MIT professor Eric Brynjolfsson). This could potentially improve auditor judgment, stakeholder confidence and audit quality.

Initially, I think this would be a way for audit firms to reduce the level of uncertainty associated with reviews from the PCAOB, CPAB and their equivalents in other jurisdictions. This would especially be the case if such audit oversight bodies would "bless" such algorithms and be able to ensure that the firms applied such judgment consistently, e.g. by having access to the "audit logs" produce by such programs.

The next - and more controversial step - would be to argue that independence rules can be relaxed in light of such automated oversight. To be honest I think there's a low likelihood of such an idea making traction with regulators in the near future, given that Europe has sought to require mandatory rotations of auditing firms. But it is something that should at least be contemplated, especially when automation becomes commonplace and attitudes may change towards how algorithms can play nicely with humans.