Five Top Tech Takeaways: GenAI and CFOs + Impact on Jobs, Gartner's Take on AI & the Hype Cycle, and how Anguilla is Cashing In on AI

Descending from the Peak of Inflated Expectations

Gartner's AI Hype Cycle 2023: We Are at the Peak of Inflated Expectations

Gartner’s 2023 AI Hype Cycle places generative AI and foundation models at the "Peak of Inflated Expectations," indicating a mixture of success and failures in these technologies. Other technologies like smart robots, responsible AI, and neuromorphic computing are also at this peak, poised to enter the "Trough of Disillusionment." The most mature technologies are situated on the "Slope of Enlightenment," which includes computer vision, data labelling and annotation, and cloud AI services. None have yet reached the "Plateau of Productivity," the stage at which the technology is mainstream and consistently beneficial. The report suggests that these emerging technologies are not just hype; they have high or transformative potential benefits across industries. However, data and analytics leaders should be cautious and ask specific questions before investing in these technologies. (Source: TechRepublic)

WSJ on Why CFOs Can’t Afford to Ignore Generative AI

As generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology matures, CFOs are exploring its potential for enhancing accounting and finance operations. Companies like Zoom and Ford have already started to implement AI tools for tasks like predictive analytics and automating routine jobs. While AI promises to drastically improve efficiencies and cost savings, CFOs must navigate concerns surrounding data security, reliability, and interpretability of AI decisions. Experts advocate for a proactive approach, advising CFOs to integrate AI into their long-term strategies to avoid falling behind competitors. Additionally, it is crucial for CFOs to evaluate the ROI of these technologies carefully, especially as they can significantly impact selling, general, and administrative costs. As AI continues to evolve, CFOs must plan for its scaled implementation as early as 2025. (Source: Wall Street Journal)

Anguilla to Generate $30 Million from .AI Domains in 2023

Anguilla, a small Caribbean island, is experiencing a surge in revenue thanks to its top-level domain, ".ai," which has become increasingly popular among artificial intelligence (AI) startups and tech giants alike. While Anguilla has been assigning the .ai domain since the 1990s, recent advancements in AI have driven a dramatic increase in registrations. Vince Cate, the manager of the .ai domain for Anguilla, estimates that the island will generate up to $30 million in domain registration fees for 2023. Tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Microsoft also own .ai domains, emphasizing their focus on AI technologies. The island, which largely relies on tourism, brought in $7.4 million from .ai domain registrations in 2021 and anticipates significantly exceeding its initial 2023 estimate of $8.3 million. The recent launch of ChatGPT is cited as a contributing factor to the uptick in demand for .ai domains. (Source: Bloomberg)

Generative AI and Its Impact on Employment: A McKinsey Analysis

A report exploring the impact of Generative AI was published by McKinsey in July. By 2030, automation could affect up to 30% of hours currently worked, with generative AI mostly enhancing roles in STEM, creative, and business fields. In contrast, customer service, food service, and office support jobs may continue to decline. Federal investments in climate and infrastructure are expected to shift jobs from fossil fuel sectors to green industries and create a net gain in employment. The report also indicates that healthcare, construction, and transportation are likely to see increased job demand. Women and low-wage workers are identified as the most vulnerable to these occupational shifts. The report had these takeaways:

Jobs in Demand

• STEM Professions: Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics
• Creative Professions: Artists, designers, writers
• Business and Legal Professionals: Lawyers, business analysts, consultants
• Green Industries: Renewable energy technicians, environmental scientists
• Healthcare Workers: Nurses, doctors, healthcare administrators
• Construction Workers: High demand due to infrastructure projects
• Transportation Services: E-commerce growth necessitates more drivers and logistics professionals

Shrinking Job Sectors

• Food Services: Many people are leaving this sector
• Customer Service: Likely to be hit by automation
• Office Support: Decline due to automation
• Oil and Gas: Employment will shift due to climate policies
• Automotive Manufacturing: Expected to decline as electric vehicles rise
• In-person Sales: Decrease due to the rise of online shopping

Hardest to Fill

• Construction: Already short almost 400,000 workers
• Healthcare: Demand will increase with an aging population
• Specialized STEM Roles: High skill requirements make these hard-to-fill
• Green Industry Jobs: As a nascent industry, finding skilled workers may be a challenge

(Source: McKinsey)

The Future of White-Collar Jobs in the Age of Generative AI

Generative AI technologies promise monumental macroeconomic benefits, potentially doubling U.S. productivity growth rates and adding trillions to the global economy. However, these technologies also threaten to disrupt various professions, including knowledge workers and white-collar professionals. Generative AI is being integrated into tasks like summarizing documents, content creation, and data analysis, areas that were typically the domain of higher-wage employees. Companies are cautiously optimistic about the technology, although concerns about AI's limitations and ethical questions around labour displacement are pressing. Industry reports by McKinsey and Goldman Sachs indicate that the gains could be massive but must be managed carefully to ensure they don't result in adverse social and economic impacts. (Source: Wall Street Journal)

Author: Malik Datardina, CPA, CA, CISA. Malik works at Auvenir as a GRC Strategist who is working to transform the engagement experience for accounting firms and their clients. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent UWCISA, UW, Auvenir (or its affiliates), CPA Canada or anyone else. This post was written with the assistance of an AI language model. The model provided suggestions and completions to help me write, but the final content and opinions are my own.

Virtual Personal Assistants: How far will they go? Part 1

Gartner in a recent press release gave some predictions around "virtual personal assistants".

What are virtual personal assistants or VPAs?

Currently, they are the not-so-perfect voice-activated software that accompanies our mobile devices - Apple has Siri, Microsoft has Cortana and Google has Google Now

On the latest Google phone, Pixel, they have Google Assistant:


Although only available for limited release, the video is actually a good summary of the promise of VPAs: the software that will help us coordinate our lives through our-ever-so-central-to-our-lives smartphones.

And that takes us back to how important these VPAs will become. According to Gartner, within two years 20% of all interactions with our smartphones will be through VPAs.

The press release from the research giant also noted some interesting stats on how frequently people are using Siri and Google Now.

In the UK/US, 54% of people surveyed used Siri in the last 3 months. With respect to Google Now, 41% have used it in the UK and 48% have used the service in the US (in the last 3 months). They also noted that they will move from simple tasks (e.g. setting alarms) to more complicated things such as executing transactions.

By 2020, Gartner predicts that VPAs combined with machine learning, IoT, biometrics and other technologies will enable 2 billion devices to operate without a touch interface.

How far can this go?

When I was thinking about writing this post, I thought about my first interaction with an artificial intelligent assistant.  However, before going there I thought it would be first interesting to go back to the movie "Her".

I saw the movie on the plane on one of the business trips that I took.

The movie is about the ultimate stage of, well, virtual personal assistants.

As noted in the trailer below, the "OS" is something that exists on the mobile device but acts as a central management point that brings a persons data together. In the movie, the OS (voiced by Scarlett Johansson) has a real personality that in a sense accompanies the protagonist, played by Joaquin Phoenix, everywhere. The movie goes a bit crazy as they apparently start "dating".

On a side note, I thought the movie was interesting as it speaks to how technology has filled the void in the life of the atomized individual. The story shows how the protagonist has had a bad breakup and turns to this OS for substitute companionship.

Sure this is far-fetched.

But how many times have we left a real conversation with a real loved one only to get to the virtual world of our phones? Of course, it's not some fake person but it's not difficult to see how we could switch the artificial world of VPAs because we have become accustomed to interacting with this endless streams of notifications.

The other part of the movie that I found interesting was how the mobile device is so nondescript. For someone like myself, smartphones have always had this novelty. But in the movie it's a not anything exciting to look at it. In a sense, what's more important is the actual OS running the device. As Gartner predicts, what becomes more important is the "touch-free interaction" between the OS and Joaquin - and the device disappears into the background.

Only time will tell how far this technology go. But I think it's fairly easy to see how such VPAs will become more entrenched in our lives the more "human" they become.

Big Data: Sliding down the Peak of Inflated expectations?

Anyone who follows enterprise IT or has had to research prospective solution would be familiar with the infamous Gartner Hype Cycle. As described in the link, it looks at technology going through a "bubblistic" growth curve. I am not sure if Gartner mentions this explicitly in the book that they published , but the Hype Cycle essentially captures the "herd mentality" that causes Bubbles to form in the Capitalist economic system. Efrim Boritz and I wrote a paper, "A Brief Review of Investment Bubbles throughout History", over a decade ago that analyzes the history of Bubbles going back to Tulipmania back in 1600s to the DotCom Bubble in 2000. In the paper we reference, John Cassidy's "Dot.con: The Greatest Story Ever Sold", as follows:

"According to Cassidy (2002) all speculative bubbles go through four stages: 1) displacement, when something changes people’s expectations about the future; 2) boom, when prices rise sharply and skepticism gives way to greed; 3) euphoria, when people realize the bubble can’t last but they want to cash in on it before it bursts; and 4) bust, when prices plummet and speculators incur great losses. "

So where does Gartner currently see Big Data fitting into the Hype Cycle?

According to the following, it is sliding down "Hype of Inflated Expectations":

Source: Gartner

And actually, there are a couple of facts that back up Gartner's claim. As I discussed in a previous blog post, Forrester cites data woes as continuing problem. For big data to be effective, the underlying data has to have "veracity"  (i.e. as per the definition). The more market driven, perhaps, is the fact that InfoWorld reported, citing a survey from Foote Partners, that "[p]remium pay for 58 big data-related skills and certifications declined by an average of 4.7 percent during the last nine months of 2014". More to the point InfoWord notes "there are signs of a slowdown as businesses learn that jumping into big data is not a recipe for instant ROI".

These factors illustrate how the Gartner Hype Cycle is useful for organizations to identify the current state tech trends to identify when is the right time for that organization to invest in the technology in order to minimize risk of the "bleeding edge" of early adoption but at the same time avoiding the risk of joining the party too late - being taken over by competitors.