But for we get to that, what is the Hype Cycle?
If you have heard terms like "peak of inflated expectations" or "trough of disillusionment" - you're already familiar with it. But if not check it out here on Gartner's site. As described in the link, it looks at technology going through a "bubblistic" growth curve, dividing the ascent of an innovation or technology into the following phases:
The Hype Cycle essentially captures the "herd mentality" that causes Bubbles to form in the Capitalist economic system. Efrim Boritz and I wrote a paper, "A Brief Review of Investment Bubbles throughout History", over a decade ago that analyzes the history of Bubbles going back to Tulipmania back in 1600s to the DotCom Bubble in 2000. In the paper we reference, John Cassidy's "Dot.con: The Greatest Story Ever Sold", as follows:
"According to Cassidy (2002) all speculative bubbles go through four stages: 1) displacement, when something changes people’s expectations about the future; 2) boom, when prices rise sharply and skepticism gives way to greed; 3) euphoria, when people realize the bubble can’t last but they want to cash in on it before it bursts; and 4) bust, when prices plummet and speculators incur great losses. "
This illustrates that it's not just Gartner that has understood this phenomenon, but it is something broadly understood about the maturity of a given technology within the context of a Capitalist economy.
Why should CPAs care about the Hype Cycle?
CPAs working for companies that approve investments or provide strategic advice to business leaders will want to understand where a technology trend is before approving an investment in that solution. For example, a company who is not threatened by competition or other trends may want to wait till the technology hits the Slope of Enlightenment or later. For example, chiropractors and other health care professionals can benefit from calender and website building/hosting services that are commercially available instead of having to develop their own. Conversely, someone in a highly competitive space may want to get in much earlier to head-off the competition. For example, Blackberry was too late when it came to having an app ecosystem to compete with Andriod or iOS.
Delving into the 2019 Trends: What's new in AI & Analytics?
In terms of the overall 2019 Hype Cycle, we see that AI is still hasn't surpassed the Peak of Inflated Expectations. This illustrates that the technology is in a Hype mode; meaning a lot has to be proven out before the full ROI of AI can be understood
In the article, the following 5 trends were highlighted:
In terms of the trend that arguably has the most relevance to CPAs is advanced AI and analytics.
In a supplementary link, Gartner highlights the importance of data literacy equating to speaking the same language in the organization:
"Imagine an organization where the marketing department speaks French, the product designers speak German, the analytics team speaks Spanish and no one speaks a second language. Even if the organization was designed with digital in mind, communicating business value and why specific technologies matter would be impossible.
That’s essentially how a data-driven business functions when there is no data literacy. If no one outside the department understands what is being said, it doesn’t matter if data and analytics offers immense business value and is a required component of digital business."
They go on to state that there is an essentially a looming crisis with respect to this stating that by "2020, 50% of organizations will lack sufficient AI and data literacy skills to achieve business value".
This trend is important for two reasons.
Firstly, one of the continuing challenges for CPAs in the world of audit is to get their arms around the data. So such a stat testifies to the continuing challenge that auditors will face when designing and executing audit data analytics (ADAs).
Second, the decision of CPA Canada to go with Data Governance as a strategic area seems to be a good choice given this trend being highlighted by Gartner.
Such trends highlights the need for CPAs to be proficient in data wrangling, extract/transact/load (ETL) and analytics. As the Gartner article notes:
"Poor data literacy is ranked as the second-biggest internal roadblock to the success of the office of the chief data officer, according to the Gartner Annual Chief Data Officer Survey. Gartner expects that, by 2020, 80% of organizations will initiate deliberate competency development in the field of data literacy to overcome extreme deficiencies."
It won't be easy to prove value with data governance because of the indirect link to cost savings or revenue enhancement. But when reputable analyst firms, such as Gartner, identify this as an important trend it makes it easier to convince the business that such investments are warranted.
Author: Malik Datardina, CPA, CA, CISA. Malik works at Auvenir as a GRC Strategist that is working to transform the engagement experience for accounting firms and their clients. The opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent UWCISA, UW, Auvenir (or its affiliates), CPA Canada or anyone else.
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